Home > distribution and abundance, GIS, Grape, Invasive species, Lobesia botrana, pheromones, population dynamics. > Prospective analysis of European grapevine moth

Prospective analysis of European grapevine moth

The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication program. A holistic physiologically-based demographic model for L. botrana linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine was run using observed daily weather data to simulate and map (via GRASS GIS) the potential distribution of the moth in California and the continental U.S.A. The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favorability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. With climate warming, L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California due to high summer temperatures.

Gutierrez A.P., Ponti L., Cooper M.L., Gilioli G., Baumgärtner J., Duso C., 2012. Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California. Agricultural and Forest Entomology, DOI 10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x

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